VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland has published a book titled 'Energy Visions 2050'.
The scenarios described in the book suggest that the development and deployment of new technologies coupled with close international climate co-operation could allow humans to mitigate climate change; but success will depend on renewal of the entire energy system by the year 2050.
Structural changes in societies and in the energy system occur very slowly.
The transition to a more efficient energy system based on renewable and zero-emission energy sources has only just begun.
It will be a long and complex process that all levels of society from governments to individual consumers can influence by their decisions and choices.
US and EU decision-makers now have an opportunity to show leadership in energy and climate issues.
The future offers huge opportunities to those that take the lead in the development and deployment of climate mitigation and energy technologies.
Energy Visions 2050 assesses the key challenges facing the global energy system over the long term and presents an in-depth analysis of the various ways in which these challenges can be met.
The examinations of future technologies encompass the whole energy chain - energy production, transmission and distribution and end-use in different sectors, for example in buildings, transportation and industry.
The book also includes a comprehensive review of global energy resources.
The results of the Energy Technology Visions 2050 research project, which was part of the now completed Climbus programme of the National Funding Agency for Technology and Innovation (Tekes), have been included in the book.
It is estimated that the world's need for energy will almost double by the year 2050 if present demand continues.
Developing countries such as China and India will account for most of the growth in energy demand.
It is estimated that global carbon-dioxide emissions will have to be halved from their year-2000 level by 2050 if climate warming is to be limited to 2C.
Fossil-fuel resources are limited and, especially in the case of oil and natural gas, geographically concentrated.
The majority of these resources are located within the territories of a relatively small number of states.
If consumption were to remain at its present level over the coming decades, easily exploitable reserves for crude oil and natural gas are estimated to become limited within 40 to 70 years.
Besides climate-change mitigation, the energy security of nations and groups of nations is expected to become a significant future development driver.
The global energy system, more than 80 per cent of which is currently based on fossil fuels, will have to change radically by the year 2050.
There are already new solutions on the horizon that will improve energy efficiency and assist in the transition to renewable and zero-emission energy sources.
Already, commercialised technologies offer plenty of opportunities for energy conservation and improved energy efficiency.
In the building sector, for instance, current commercial technologies that typically add just a few per cent to construction costs enable energy-efficiency improvements of tens of per cent to be made in heating.
In the future, a wider range of technologies and energy sources will be used in the transportation sector.
Over the next ten years there will be a progressive shift towards hybrid and plug-in electric vehicles and biofuels will account for a larger share of the energy mix.
In the transportation sector, cars powered by hydrogen-based fuel cells are often seen as a long-term solution.
Uncertainties about technology development and the importance of policy choices are common in the transportation sector.
In energy scenarios aimed at climate-change mitigation, the most important electricity-production technologies globally from 2020 - 2030 onwards are expected to be wind power, fission-based nuclear power, carbon capture and storage (CCS) and advanced co-generation and mixed-fuel technologies based on recycling and biofuels.
Without additional support measures, the exploitation of solar energy will start to grow significantly from 2040 - 2050 onwards, becoming more important towards the end of the century.
Advanced nuclear-power technologies will start to carve out a share of global electricity production in the second half of the century.
These include advanced fission-based nuclear power-plant concepts that exploit uranium resources more efficiently than at present, as well as fusion technology, which currently is at an earlier development stage.
The scenarios presented by the Technical Research Centre of Finland (VTT) and the Government Institute for Economic Research (VATT) in Energy Visions 2050 are based on extensive modelling, which has provided global scenarios for structural change in the global economy, the future structure of the energy system and effective control of greenhouse-gas emissions.
The scenarios show that the mitigation of climate change through the development and deployment of new technologies and international climate co-operation is technically possible.
The scenarios are not, however, predictions of the future.
The kind of development presented in the scenarios will require investments of billions of Euros, with more than a half of that total investment to be made in developing countries.
Technology development requires significant investment in research and development, but will create new jobs and new industries.
Energy Visions 2050 has been produced as the result of extensive national and international co-operation.
Many experts working in various fields at the Technical Research Centre of Finland (VTT) and the Government Institute for Economic Research (VATT) took part in the project, which was part of the Climbus programme of the National Funding Agency for Technology and Innovation (Tekes).
It was funded by Tekes, VTT and VATT.
